Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
